Election Night on Twitter: Loss of Latino Vote Dooms Republicans, and Obama MUST Make Immigration Reform a Priority by Van Le on 11/07/12 at 12:01 am
impreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll Now Posted for 5 States – Show Very Large Vote for Obama by Van Le on 11/06/12 at 10:11 pm
impreMedia and Latino Decisions have now released polling data of Latino voters in 5 eastern states with influential Latino voting populations: Florida, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina and Massachusetts. Full results for these states can be found under Recent Polls here: www.latinodecisions.com/recent-polls/ and further detail can be found atwww.latinovote2012.com
So far, early exit poll data on Latinos reported by the National Exit Poll appears to be very flawed. For example, in Ohio the NEP data among Latinos reports 56% vote for Obama. In contrast the impreMedia-Latino Decisions poll shows 82% for Obama. Likewise, the NEP Latino data in Virginia shows 53% for Obama while the IM-LD poll shows 66% Latino vote for Obama in VA.
Last week we wrote a detailed blog about how the National Exit Poll data is historically very flawed among Latinos, and this appears to be the case again with early exit poll data being reported.
Additional states will be released as the polls close including Texas, New Mexico, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and California.
Exit Polling in Virginia Badly Understates Latino Vote Margin by Van Le on 11/06/12 at 10:06 pm
The media-sponsored exit polling has a good reputation for many things, but a terrible reputation when it comes to capturing Latino voting behavior. This is precisely why ImpreMedia, a leading Spanish language media company, is sponsoring Election Eve polling of Latino voters – nationwide and in 11 key states.
Tonight’s first example of how this blind spot is affecting assessments of key states is showing up in Virginia. The exit polling says that Obama is leading Romney 53% – 44%. The ImpreMedia/Latino Decisions Election Eve poll of Latino voters has Obama beating Romney by 66% – 31%. That’s the difference between a narrow 9% lead and a huge 35% lead. The stakes are high: if the exit polling is right, Romney is likely to win the state; if the Latino Decisions polling is right, Obama is likely to win the state.
Who is right? Of course, time will tell. But recent electoral history is replete with examples of how traditional exit polling oversampled Latinos who lean Republican and under sampled Latinos, especially those who speak Spanish and lean more heavily Democratic. For a thorough examination, see this post by Latino Decisions Principal Matt Barreto, entitled: “How the Exit Polls Misrepresent Latino Voters, and Badly.”
We caution those who are depending on the exit polling to accurately tell the story of what’s happening in states with a growing Latino vote to cross check the exit polling results with the Latino Decisions Election Eve polling. It could make all the difference in making calls regarding battleground state outcomes.
Election Eve Poll Preview: Immigration a Top Issue for Latinos by Pili Tobar on 11/06/12 at 5:16 pm
ImpreMedia, one of the nation’s premier Spanish-language media companies, has teamed with Latino Decisions to conduct an extensive Election Eve poll of Latino voters. Latino Decisions has completed 5,600 interviews with Latinos who have already voted or were certain to vote – nationally and in the following states: AZ, CA, CO, FL, MA, NC, NM, NV, OH, TX and VA.
While results regarding who Latinos voted for and against will not be made public until after the polls close, ImpreMedia and Latino Decisions released findings regarding the top issues motivating Latino voters in the 2012 election.
Asked about the most important issues facing the Latino community that should be addressed by politicians, this is what Latino voters offered up as the top four issues:
- Create new jobs/fix the economy: 53%
- Immigration reform/DREAM Act: 35%
- Education reform/schools: 20%
- Health care: 14%
According to Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice:
For the fastest growing group of voters in America, immigration has become a something of a litmus test. Immigration is to Latino voters what civil rights issues are to African American voters, Israel is to many Jewish voters, choice is to many women voters and life is to many evangelical voters. A candidate’s position on immigration defines for many Latino voters whether those seeking their votes respect the community for their hard work and contributions, or see them as outsiders who are somehow threatening.
The fact that Latino voters rank immigration reform and the DREAM Act as the second most important issue is not good news for Romney and the Republicans. Their lurch to the right has branded the candidate and the party as anti-immigrant and anti-Latino. Meanwhile, Obama’s gutsy decision to offer relief and work permits to 1.4 million DREAMers may turn out to be a critical turning point in the campaign.
Beginning at 8pm Eastern and each hour thereafter as polls close throughout the night, state level results on candidate voter preferences will be released. The entire poll results will become available after 8pm Pacific including all national and state specific data.
- Access impreMedia/Latino Decisions Election Eve polling results (updated with new information throughout evening)
- Read Latino Decisions’ description of their poll methodology
Economy and immigration are top issues to Latino voters in 2012 by Guest Blogger on 11/06/12 at 4:42 pm
The ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll of 5,600 Latino voters has indicated that the Economy/Jobs and Immigration were the most important issues to Latino voters in 2012. As indicated in the figure below, 53% of Latino voters nationally who were surveyed during the final days of the campaign indicate that the Economy and Jobs was the most important issue facing the Latino community, with 35% of Latino voters indicating that Immigration was the most important issue. This is reflective of what we have found in our polls throughout the entire campaign season, as the economy and immigration have consistently been identified as the dominant issues among Latino voters. Education (20%) and healthcare (14%) were also identified by a large number of Latino voters. Click here if you would like to see how policy importance varies by key demographic factors, such as gender, national origin, and partisanship.
The most important issue content of the national survey is the first of several posts that will provide exclusive insights into the 2012 Latino electorate including Presidential and Congressional vote choice and party evaluations. Latino Decisions will announce and post updates via Twitter, this blog, our 2012 Election Eve Poll page, as well as a new webpage we have created specifically for our election eve survey results.
All state and national survey results will be available after 8pm Pacific.
If You’re a Maryland Voter, Please Vote FOR Question 4 and Protect the Maryland DREAM Act! by Van Le on 11/06/12 at 2:51 pm
If you’re a Maryland voter this Election Day, please also remember to vote FOR Question 4, which will protect the tuition bill widely known as the Maryland DREAM Act! Here’s EJ Dionne writing about it in this morning’s Washington Post:
A “yes” vote on Question 4 would ratify a state law that would make some undocumented students eligible for in-state tuition rates at state universities. These are students who were brought to the United States as young children and can hardly be said to be responsible for breaking immigration laws themselves. Honestly, how many better investments of public money are there than allowing students to continue their educations?…
Our immigration debate over the last several years has been flawed by the fact that it has focused almost entirely on the problems of illegal immigration and hardly at all on how immigrants can help make our nation stronger and more prosperous. There are legitimate concerns about illegal immigration, but there are enormous upsides to encouraging newcomers to our shores who want nothing more (or less) than the chance to stand in the ranks of productive and innovative citizens.
Dr. Joshua Starr, superintendent of Montgomery County Public Schools, put the choice well:
The Maryland DREAM Act is not about politics: it’s about our future and the future of our students. The Act would simply allow hard-working students who have been in our system for years to pursue the dream of post-secondary education and receive in-state tuition rates. A college education is often the key to unlocking opportunity and all students — regardless of where they were born or their parents were born — deserve the chance to have a bright future and be a productive member of society.
I hope that Maryland voters approve Question 4 and thus set a tone for our nation. The next Congress should pass a National Dream Act and, ultimately, comprehensive immigration reform.
Also check out these pictures from Educating Maryland Kids, documenting the hard work they’ve put into protecting the Maryland DREAM Act this year.
Amazing DREAMers in Maryland are counting on you:
Bishop Madden supports the Maryland DREAM Act:
Representative Elijah E. Cummings spoke in support of the Maryland DREAM Act alongside students from CASA de Maryland.
Bishops and faith leaders spoke out at Morgan State University in support of the Maryland DREAM Act. A powerful endorsement from across the religious spectrum.
Maryland DREAM Act supporters at Towson University: