The New Constituents: How Latinos Will Shape the Next Congress

America's Voice Blog

Posted 11/17/09 at 02:00pm

Today America's Voice released a report entitled, "The New Constituents… How Latinos Will Shape Congressional Apportionment After the 2010 Census" at a live-streamed event at NDN in Washington, DC.

The report examines the role Latinos will play in shaping the next Congress, after the 2010 Census. According to bipartisan projections, nineteen states are poised to see changes in their Congressional representation. Eight states will gain at least one House seat, while eleven states will lose at least one seat in Congress.

These states, as outlined in the report:

States gaining House seats: Texas (+4), Arizona (+2), Florida (+1), Georgia (+1), Nevada (+1), Oregon (+1), South Carolina (+1), and Utah (+1).

States losing House seats: Ohio (-2), Illinois (-1), Iowa (-1), Louisiana (-1), Massachusetts (-1), Michigan (-1), Minnesota (-1), Missouri (-1), New Jersey (-1), New York (-1), and Pennsylvania (-1).

Analyzing existing state Census data, voter registration, and voter turnout from 2000 to 2008, the report indicates that Latino populations are expanding in new regions of the country:

Latinos are not just settling in major cities, but diverse regions of the country. After the 2010 Census, new Members of Congress in states like Georgia and South Carolina as well as Arizona and Texas will owe their positions, in part, to the expanding Latino population.

Latinos represent 51% of population growth in the United States as a whole since 2000. They have driven growth in the states poised to gain House seats following the 2010 Census, especially in those projected to gain more than one seat. In these two states, Texas and Arizona, Latinos comprise a combined 59% of population growth since 2000.

In addition, states that are losing Congressional representation could have been in a much worse position without Latino constituents:

States that are losing Congressional representation would have fared worse had Latinos not moved there in record numbers. While their states’ Congressional delegations are shrinking overall, Latino voters are gaining power as they expand their share of the electorate.

Latinos make up a combined 77% of the population growth in the eleven states projected to lose a House seat. In nine of the eleven states projected to lose representation in Congress, Latinos were the majority of the state’s population growth since 2000. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey showed the highest percentage of growth, as each state would have seen a net decline in population over the last decade if not for the influx of Latinos. While Louisiana did see a net population loss this decade, had it not been for strong growth in the state’s Latino population, the numbers would have looked much starker. Latinos also made up at least half of the state’s population growth since 2000 in Illinois, Massachusetts, New York, Ohio, and Iowa.

The report also points to a dramatically increased Latino electorate across the country:

Not only is the overall Latino population growing, but the number of Latino voters is also increasing dramatically.

Nationwide, Latino voter registration grew 54% and Latino voter turnout grew 64% between 2000 and 2008. In sixteen of the nineteen states projected to gain or lose seats after the 2010 Census, the Latino share of the overall electorate increased between 2000 and 2008. In five of the eight states projected to gain seats, and in all of the eleven states projected to lose seats, Latinos made up a greater share of the overall electorate in 2008 than they did in 2000.

In the eight states poised to gain seats, Latino voter registration grew 45% and Latino voter turnout expanded 50% between 2000 and 2008. In the eleven states poised to lose seats, Latino voter registration grew 50% and Latino voter turnout expanded 62% between 2000 and 2008.

Finally, the report concludes with an analysis of what the "New Constituents" care about and how this could change the national conversation:

As this demographic continues to grow, politicians who ignore or demonize the Latino population in their states will find the road to re-election much more difficult.

Proposition 187 in California, which created a backlash among Latino voters that the state Republican Party is still trying to overcome, marked the beginning of a trend that has been repeated in national, state, and local elections over the last several years. This trend will only continue as the Latino electorate grows, if politicians continue to demonize Latinos and immigrants through harsh rhetoric and policies. For example, according to polling by Bendixen & Associates, 87% of Latino voters refuse to even consider voting for a candidate who advocates mass deportation of undocumented workers.

Check out the full report here.