Report Roundup: Critical Latino Vote ‘Could Hinge on Immigration Reform Efforts’

America's Voice Blog

Posted 02/11/10 at 10:48am

Our latest report, "The Power of the Latino Vote in America: They Tipped Elections in 2008; Where Will they be in 2010?" spotlights Latino voting trends. It identifies 40 battleground races in 11 states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia) where Latinos will have an impact this year.

Following are highlights of coverage and analysis from around the blogosphere (all emphasis mine).

David Dayen reports for Firedoglake, in "Latino Vote Could Hinge On Immigration Reform Efforts":

On a conference call yesterday put together by America’s Voice, immigration reform advocates released a study called “The Power of the Latino Vote,” looking at this constituency and their impact on the 2010 midterms. Despite having swung to Democrats decidedly in 2008, almost single-handedly giving Nevada, Colorado and Florida to Barack Obama over John McCain, a substantial portion of the Latino electorate, foreign-born but naturalized US citizens, has shown the propensity to switch parties from election to election.

And a failure to move on immigration reform, seen as a key issue to this constituency, will have consequences in November, according to the study. While this is not the most crucial issue facing the Latino electorate – as the SEIU’s Eliseo Medina said on the conference call, Latino voters want politicians who “care about working people and not hedge fund pirates and corporate CEOs” – it is a “litmus test” in the community in terms of paying attention to and respecting their concerns. “Latinos are becoming more engaged with every election cycle, and they will not stand for being ignored or attacked,” Medina said. […]

[… C]learly, the President made promises both on the campaign trail and in the White House about fixing the broken immigration system, and these hopes have raised Latino turnout in the past (by close to 54% between 2000 and 2008). Ignoring those promises would have detrimental effects on future elections. Janet Murguia of the National Council of La Raza said on the call, “The President made a promise to the Latino community, and we haven’t forgotten… If it doesn’t happen, there’s no question it will affect Latino turnout. There will be a huge sense of disappointment.”

Marisa Treviño of Latina Lista writes, in “New study on Latino voters shows the key to reaching many Latinos lies in the language of engagement:”

If one thing is clear from a new report released today by America's Voice entitled The Power of the Latino Vote in America: They Tipped Elections in 2008; Where Will They Be in 2010? it's that no political party should underestimate the power of the Latino vote.

The study points to the fact that in precincts across the country Latino voters are poised to be the swing voters many candidates will need to land in office.

Though the study shows that Latino voters trend Democratic, there's no guarantee that it will remain so, especially if the Democratic party fails to honor campaign promises made to the Latino community.

Prerna Lal argues, in “Latino Vote Critical in 40 Competitive Races This November,” at Change.org:

The message is simple: If Democrats want to retain their seats and not lose crucial seats in battleground states, they better start doing things that would bring their base out to vote.

The GOP also has the opportunity to play a master-stroke and win the constituency for many years to come if it plays its cards right on issues like immigrant rights. Alas, the party has been hijacked by tea baggers and nativists in recent times who are calling for Jim-Crow era civics literacy tests.

Over at the Huffington Post, Janet Murguia says, in “New Report on the Latino Vote Should Be Bedside Reading for Any Politician:”

Latinos are a national community and our vote matters. Although many think of Latinos only when they think of California, New York, or Texas, we are a growing part of the electorate everywhere. We are the fastest-growing population, and we are the youngest population.

We are not firmly Democratic, and we have not been definitively pushed away by Republicans yet. Our 18-year-olds are registering to vote, our immigrants are becoming new Americans, our citizens are turning out on Election Day, and the NCLR and its network of community-based organizations are working to ensure that that process continues and grows. What matters to us ought to matter to any wise politician seeking office. […]

Like all Americans, we are concerned about an immigration system in chaos that politicians continue to talk about but do painfully little to fix, actively thwarting or ignoring real solutions. We want a legal system with smart enforcement and laws that people follow, one that upholds our national values of family unity and hard work. A system where employers cannot undercut American jobs and wages. A system that once and for all rejects the notion that we can massively detain and deport a population about the size of Pennsylvania, and instead gets them on the books and paying taxes. Policy-wise, reform could not be more urgent.

Douglas Rivlin writes, in “A Progressive Game Changer: Immigration Reform In 2010,” at News Junkie Post:

Progressives, I have a game changer for you and it is immigration reform. I invite you to get on board or at least hear me out as I make my case.

As a political issue at this moment in time, immigration has three distinct advantages over most of the other issues I see: 1) It builds coalitions on the left; 2) It divides coalitions on the right; and 3) It mobilizes a key constituency of voters – Latinos and immigrants – who are decisive in the future of politics in America.

For years, immigration reform has been seen as a wedge issue to be wielded by Republicans against Democrats, when in fact, it is an issue that works in exactly the opposite way. Immigration reform could be the difference between an honorable tie in November –where Democrats hold onto their majority, don’t lose too many seats, and live to fight another day – or a serious defeat that wounds the Party and the policies progressives care about for years to come. But in order to win, the Democrats must lean into the issue and be aggressive, and progressives have to help show them the way.

At Immigration Impact, Wendy Sefsaf chronicles “The 2010 Mid-Term Elections and the Impatient Latino Vote:”

In other words, when both parties are supportive of the Latino community and their needs, this Latinos sub-group can swing towards either party. For this group of voters however, immigration reform is a litmus test, and how each candidate treats the issue will be a key factor in determining which way the Latino voters will swing.

However, how important is immigration reform to the Latino community given the number of social and economic challenges the nation faces? The report explains:

The potency of immigration as a ‘voting issue’ should not be underestimated. Both polling data and Hispanic voting behavior over multiple election cycles shows that immigration serves as a lens through which Latinos assess the political environment and candidate attitudes not just toward immigrants, but toward their community as a whole. In a May 2009 poll of Latino voters by Bendixen & Associates, 82% of Latino voters said that the immigration issue is important to them and their families, and 69% said that they personally know someone who is undocumented.

We’ll be updating the new report frequently, as the key races evolve, so be sure to check back for the latest findings.