In CA and TX Governor’s Races, GOP in Real Danger Because of AZ and Anti-Immigrant Rhetoric

America's Voice Blog

Posted 06/23/10 at 03:48pm

GOP primary politics could potentially doom their chances to retain control of the Governor’s mansions in Texas and California. Governor Jan Brewer’s signature on SB 1070 and the constant anti-immigrant rhetoric coming from GOP Congressmen is downright offensive to Latinos for whom the Republican brand name is increasingly becoming synonymous with being anti-Latino.

Here’s a rundown of the latest from the races for Governor in that nation’s two largest states, California and Texas.

CALIFORNIA

In his column in The Hill, Markos Moulitsas explains why immigration matters in his state:

Between 2000 and 2008, Latino turnout in California has grown 85.41 percent, from 1.6 million to just shy of 3 million — over 21 percent of the total, and growing.

During the GOP primary, Meg Whitman appealed to the hard-core anti-immigrant wing of her party. She’s been trying to scramble back ever since. But, as Markos notes, it won’t be easy:

Whitman is a little more worried about Latino voters, telling The New York Times that she would “move away from immigration to broaden her appeal” after the primary, while running ads on Spanish-language TV during World Cup broadcasts, claiming, implausibly, that “She respects our community.” Democratic groups won’t let that happen. The California Nurses Association paid to re-air a Whitman primary ad on Spanish-language radio:

Meg Whitman: Don’t be fooled by misleading ads; my position on immigration is crystal-clear. Illegal immigrants are just that, illegal. I am 100 percent against amnesty for illegal immigrants. Period. As governor, I will crack down on so-called sanctuary cities like San Francisco who thumb their nose at our laws. Illegal immigrants should not expect benefits from the state of California. No driver’s license and no admission to state-funded institutions of higher education. And I’ll create an economic fence to crack down on employers who break the law by using illegal labor.

Pete Wilson: This is former Gov. Pete Wilson. I know how important it is to stop illegal immigration and I know Meg Whitman. Meg will be tough as nails on illegal immigration. She’ll fight to secure our border and go after sanctuary cities.

[GOP Senate nominee Carly] Fiorina has already given up on the Latino vote, and Whitman probably should as well, because the fastest-growing portion of California’s electorate knows exactly what the GOP is selling.

Whitman is going to be running against her own words on immigration until November.

TEXAS

Public Policy Polling released a poll showing a tie in the race for Governor between incumbent Republican Rick Perry and Democrat Bill White. The survey that found movement for White “has come completely with Hispanic voters.” This finding isn’t a unique to Texas, according to PPP’s Tom Jensen. But, it sure has changed the dynamics of the race for Governor:

Our poll of the Texas Governor's race this week is another data point indicating possible backlash for Republican candidates this fall in the wake of the Arizona immigration law.

When we polled the race in February Rick Perry led Bill White by 6 points. The race is tied now, and the movement since the previous poll has come completely with Hispanic voters. With white voters Perry led 54-35 then and leads 55-35 now. With black voters White led 81-12 then and leads 70-7 now. But with Hispanics Perry has gone from leading 53-41 in February to now trailing 55-21. And it's not that the sample of Hispanic voters we interviewed for this poll was somehow fundamentally different from the previous one- Barack Obama's approval with them on this poll was 49% compared to 47% on the previous Texas poll.

Hispanics moving toward Democratic candidates since the Arizona immigration bill was signed is becoming a trend in our polling of western states.

After championing immigration reform for years, John McCain was walloped by Barack Obama with Latino voters because the Republican brand name was so badly damaged by his party’s bad behavior on immigration. Now Whitman and Perry face a similar dilemma. As leaders of their party, will their own political future inspire them to lead their party out of the wilderness? And more importantly, will Latino voters believe them?