America's Voice Blog

Posted 08/30/10 at 09:00am By Frank Sharry

In Florida, Bill McCollum’s Primary Loss Shows Limits of Immigrant Bashing

While most analysis of immigration politics has focused on Arizona lately, both parties should take note of the results of last Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary in Florida.  In states with a significant Latino presence, there is a steep price to pay for ugly immigration politics.

Here’s what happened: Attorney General Bill McCollum was the favorite in the GOP gubernatorial primary, with a moderate record on immigration and strong support from Latino Republicans.  His opponent Rick Scott, a political newcomer and self-funded multi-millionaire, decided to make a name for himself by riding the wave of anti-immigrant sentiment so popular with a segment of the Republican base.  He emphasized his strong support for an Arizona-like immigration law in Florida and painted McCollum as soft on illegal immigration.  Still, once McCollum started attacking Scott as a shady businessman, he regained the lead and was expected to win.

In what proved to be the fatal move of his campaign, McCollum introduced his own version of an Arizona-type law less than two weeks before the primary.  McCollum called on the Florida state legislature to enact it in September and bragged that the bill was tougher than Arizona’s.

Turns out, McCollum’s strategy of trying to outflank Scott on immigrant bashing backfired.  McCollum rapidly lost support from Latino leaders, and faced a backlash in the press.  On Tuesday, many Latinos in Miami-Dade County stayed home.  Turnout in what was expected to be a McCollum stronghold was less than 17%, while statewide turnout was 21%.  Scott raced over the finish line and pulled off the come-from-behind upset.

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Posted 08/13/10 at 01:20pm By Dara Lind

Why Latinos Are Frustrated: It’s Called Leadership

As Politico reported last week, Spanish-language media, just like Latino voters, are growing increasingly frustrated with Washington's inaction on comprehensive immigration reform -- and with the Obama Administration's policy of continuing Bush-era immigration enforcement policies that deport the undocumented immigrant moms and dads who were supposed to be legal taxpayers and citizens by now.

Seems like pretty justified anger, but over at ThinkProgress, Matt Yglesias states that the President shouldn't get too much blame, because showing leadership would somehow make the near-hysterical immigration debate “partisan” and “polarized:”

"…when Presidents insert themselves into legislative debates, that induces partisan polarization. Immigration has always been an issue that scrambles both parties coalitions, and I don’t think that’s changed today. A more polarized dynamic is only going to make reform harder to achieve. Of course the president would have a role in pushing a bill over the finish line, but success requires a starting baseline of genuine cooperation on the Hill."

Here’s the thing. The immigration debate in Congress is already partisan and polarized.  When it comes to the issue of immigration, Republicans are lock step behind a partisan political strategy instead of a responsible legislative strategy. In a year when John McCain's immigration platform is "complete the danged fence," Lindsey Graham wants to scrap the 14th Amendment to the Constitution because of the imaginary threat of what he calls "drop and leave" births, and GOP candidates propose everything from tent cities to 1940’s-style internment camps for the undocumented, it's clear that Republicans don't feel pressure to offer a pragmatic solution to illegal immigration.

Perhaps the only thing that could break the polarization in Washington and start the long process back toward bipartisanship on the issue is if the Democrats—including the President—spoke up loudly, confidently, and consistently about dangers of the Republican approach and the need for real comprehensive immigration reform. Sure, the President can’t be the only voice of reason in order to break the logjam, but he can guide the way.  He has given some good speeches, but he has not spoken about the issue nearly as much as he needs to.  Doing so would draw clear lines for American voters and raise the stakes for the GOP: will Republican politicians stick with their fantasy-land proposals, or will they be dragged to table to craft a real solution that Americans of all political persuasions actually want?

Instead, the Administration and Democratic leaders often act like they are afraid of the issue, choosing to highlight their similarities with Republicans on “securing the border” instead of highlighting the fact that comprehensive immigration reform is the only way to a truly secure border. Just look at the rush to bring the Senate back from recess to pass an “emergency” bill that sends another $600 million in troops and unmanned drones to the border, but does nothing to deal with the millions of undocumented immigrants in our country today.

As Lynn Tramonte, Deputy Director of America's Voice, said when the border bill was passed:

"By bringing the border bill forward, Democratic leaders say they are hoping to court Republicans who have refused to negotiate on comprehensive immigration reform until the border is 'secure.'  But who decides it’s 'secure,' and when, and how?  Already, Republican Members of Congress are saying the bill doesn’t go far enough.  The fact is, Republican senators and representatives have made a political decision not to work with Democrats on comprehensive immigration reform because they think this is in their electoral interests.  They are wrong.  Not only are they alienating Latino voters with their anti-immigrant rhetoric, but they are irresponsibly blocking a solution that America desperately needs."

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Posted 04/21/10 at 08:27am By Jackie Mahendra

Obama Calls Sen. Brown as Arizona Braces for Immigration Battle

TPM's LiveWire covers a story The Wall Street Journal first broke late yesterday:

President Obama called Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) from Air Force One today to tell the Republican that immigration reform was coming in a matter of weeks -- and to encourage Brown to get involved with the legislation.

Obama, who's been under pressure from reform advocates to act on immigration, urged Brown to consider legislation being proposed by Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Charles Schumer (D-NY). According to the Wall Street Journal, Obama told Brown Democrats would move forward with immigration reform in a month.

"Senator Brown told the president that he would review any legislation if it came before the Senate, but he believes that the immediate focus should be on fixing the economy and creating jobs," Brown spokesman Colin Reed told TPM.

Immigration reform advocates have been asking for fewer words, and more action, from the President and leaders in Congress for some time now. Frustrations with the dismal pace of promised action on real immigration reform spurred the 200,000-person march in Washington on March 21st, 2010, and is gearing up to drive the next round of national mobilizations for immigration reform on May 1st.

As Kos pointed out earlier today in "Gutierrez: immigration reform, or we stay home," there could be a political cost to Democrats in November if these developments turn out to be more words than action:

Rep. Luis Gutierrez is right:

The Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC) member has strongly criticized the administration’s policy on deportation and questioned its commitment to far-reaching reform.

Some Democrats have felt little urgency in pursuing the controversial issue, partly because they see no risk that Hispanic voters will bolt the party for the GOP. But Gutierrez says they are missing the real political consequence of inaction.

“We can stay home,” Gutierrez said in an interview with The Hill. “We can say, ‘You know what? There is a third option: We can refuse to participate.’ ”

Democrats are suffering from an intensity gap, and it can ill afford to have one of its key constituencies stay home because the party welched on a key campaign promise.

Despite the good news about Senator Brown, doubts continue to surface as to whether the White House is doing everything needed to lay the groundwork for real immigration reform.

Local groups across the country have set a deadline of May 1st to see concrete progress, or step up their criticism and action. Facing the most punitive (and perhaps least constitutional) immigration law in the nation, Arizona youth are taking matters into their own hands and chaining themselves to the Capitol in protest. S.B. 1070 is a bill that progressive blogger John Amato argues would turn Arizona into a "police state" by forcing local cops to profile and interrogate anyone who "looks" undocumented. Here are those protesters:

Latina Lista argues that Arizona developments may have prompted the call from Obama to Brown:

Whatever the source, President Obama seems to have gotten the message that as long as Congress and his administration put immigration reform on the backburner, the chasm of racial tension in this country is only going to get deeper...

Atrios writes:

This Arizona law would be less crazy, though still offensively bad, if we actually, you know, had "papers," but we really don't. Lots of people don't have passports, and no one carries them around. Birth certificates are generally locked away somewhere.

Meanwhile, vigils continue around the clock to urge Governor Brewer to veto SB 1070. America's Voice joined forces with local and national groups to deliver over 50,000 petitions to the Governor yesterday afternoon in Phoenix -- demanding that she veto the bill.

In addition, the state’s own Association of Chiefs of Police believe, according to the Arizona Daily Star:

It [SB 1070] could erode trust with immigrants who may be witnesses. The group also warned that it would be too costly and would distract police from dealing with more serious problems.

What's happening in Arizona today is a perfect example of what will continue to take place around the nation if we fail to repair our dysfunctional immigration system now. In other words, the stakes are high, and patience is wearing thin.

Posted 04/09/10 at 01:37pm By Lynn Tramonte

The Republican Choice on Immigration And Latino Outreach

As we’ve discussed before, Republicans are facing a major fork in the road over immigration issues. 

In one direction is the large contingent of GOPers who, no matter the short-term political damage (the failure of the GOP’s immigration wedge strategy in recent elections) or the longer-term stupidity of anti-immigration pandering (Latino demographic and voting trends aren’t exactly a secret), remains convinced that stridently anti-immigrant rhetoric and unyielding deportation-only policies are the proper course.  In the other direction is a smaller group of elected officials and conservative activists who understand both the political imperatives and practical policy necessities of changing the Party’s tone on immigration.

This week offered new evidence of the Republican split over the issue and provided new recruits for each side.

Offering support for the worn anti-immigration direction for the Party was Senator Jon Kyl (R-AZ).  In front a crowd of 350 people in Yuma, AZ, Senator Kyl promised that, upon comprehensive immigration reform legislation reaching the U.S. Senate floor, “Republicans will use the opportunity to filibuster.”  Translation: even though he represents a state in desperate need of reforming the broken immigration system, AND, no matter that the legislation is modeled largely after his own 2007 bill, the second-ranking R in the Senate is proclaiming that the political benefits of stopping a bipartisan initiative supported by the President is more important than solving one of his state’s key problems.  Kyl’s remarks come in the midst of a high-profile primary fight in Arizona between Senator John McCain (R-AZ) and challenger J.D. Hayworth, in which immigration is a hot topic and key dividing line between the candidates.

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Posted 03/31/10 at 02:35pm By Lynn Tramonte

Powerful Latino Voting Block of 2008 May Stay Home in 2010 Without Reform

New polling of Latino voters reveals that 1) this group is among the least energized heading into the 2010 elections; and 2) progress on comprehensive immigration reform is key to re-energizing these voters.

Latino Decisions researcher and Stanford University professor Dr. Gary Segura highlighted and analyzed the findings:

Among all the key constituents in the 2008 Obama victory, Latino voters appear to be among the least enthusiastic about voting in the 2010 midterm.

The poll found that just 49% of Latino registered voters who say they are very enthusiastic about voting, an all time low.  In the 2006 mid-terms, 60% of Latinos turned out, and their self-reported enthusiasm prior to the election was 77%.

Dr. Segura’s conclusion? 

For Latinos, there will have to be a genuine attempt on the part of the administration and Democrats in Congress to act on immigration.  Even if it fails, an honest effort (and the inevitable, ugly, GOP response) will help close the yawning enthusiasm gap between Latinos of 2010 and Latinos of 2006.  And should it pass, as it ought to, the rewards will be palpable.

According to Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice:

Just as the hope of genuine immigration reform motivated Latino voters to vote for Barack Obama and Democrats in 2008, the lack of hope threatens to keep them at home in the pivotal 2010 elections.  Latino voters may hold the keys to the congressional kingdom through their influence in many key swing races, but leadership on immigration reform will be needed to ensure an enthusiastic and mobilized Latino vote in 2010.

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Posted 02/26/10 at 06:51pm By Jackie Mahendra

CIS-Zogby Polling FAIL: Cooking the Books on Latino Support for Mass Deportation

RecipeThis week the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), the “think tank” of the anti-immigrant lobby, announced the results of a new CIS-sponsored Zogby poll purporting to show that people of color, including Latinos, support their mass-deportation, anti-immigrant agenda.

Coming from the same group whose leader, Mark Krikorian, recently argued that Judge Sotomayor should change her name to sound more “Anglo,” and who has previously blamed immigrants for global warming, CIS' viewpoints and strategies are clearly far from mainstream. Still, this latest effort to muddy the waters about public opinion on immigration ventures into the realm of the absurd.

CIS argues that people of color actually prefer enforcement-only approaches over comprehensive immigration reform. They claim that their “poll of Hispanic, Asian-American, and African-American likely voters finds some support for legalization.  But overall each of these groups prefers enforcement and for illegal immigrants to return home.”  The CIS “poll” amazingly found that 52% of Latinos “support enforcement to encourage illegals to go home; 34 percent support conditional legalization.” 

That's right, CIS has cooked up a plan to try to convince us that a majority of Latinos support the mass deportation of the 12 milllion immigrants living and working in the U.S. without authorization. Half-baked polling and research is nothing new for these folks, after all.

What's really going on: the questions in the CIS-sponsored Zogby poll are engineered to produce anti-immigration responses and rely solely on input from online respondents, rather than a random sample of the general population (i.e. a true random digit dial telephone poll).  The findings are a dramatic departure from the results of numerous other (credible) polls of Latino voters (see below). 

Here's a quick Public Service Announcement from FiveThirtyEight.com's Nate Silver, who has called CIS' polling firm, Zogby, the "Worst Pollster in the World":

Zogby International conducts two types of polls. One type are conventional telephone polls. Zogby's telephone polls, while prone to somewhat wild fluctuations and subject to their share of erratic results (such as predicting a 13-point win for Barack Obama in the California primary; Obama lost by 9 points), are actually not terrible, and did fairly well on November 4th.

Zogby, however, also conducts Internet-based polls. These polls are conducted among users who volunteer to participate in them, first by signing up at the Zogby website (you can do so yourself here) and then by responding to an e-mail solicitation. These Internet polls, to the extent they rely on voluntary participation, violate the most basic precept of survey research, which is that of the random sample. And as you might infer, they obtain absolutely terrible results. 

Onto the real research. A May 2009 poll of Latinos nationwide conducted by Latino Decisions found that:

“...over 80% of Latino voters said they supported Obama’s plan that included increased border security, fines for undocumented immigrants, and a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants meeting certain requirements – just 14% of Latinos opposed the president’s plan.”

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Posted 02/16/10 at 03:28pm By Frank Sharry

Democrats Accused of “Empty Words” on Immigration

Cross-Posted at the Huffington Post:

There’s a very strong editorial today in La Opinion on the issue of immigration reform. Translated, the title reads, "No More Empty Words." It lays responsibility for any inaction on immigration this Congress squarely at the feet of Democrats.  It notes that in the past Democrats were able to blame Republicans for blocking comprehensive immigration reform, but not now, not with control of the White House and solid majorities in both chambers. 

Now, most politicos won’t read this editorial because it’s in Spanish. So allow me to translate.

La Opinion is the country's leading Spanish-language newspapers, and a large swath of Spanish-speaking voters across the country will read it.  But it doesn’t stand alone.  The editorial reflects a growing sentiment among Spanish-speaking Latino voters, who turned out in record numbers in 2008 to vote Democrats into office (marking a major swing from 2004, when large numbers of Spanish-speaking voters turned out for Bush). The piece reads:

In an interview with La Opinion, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said she has hopes that reform would happen this year, without offering anymore details. This statement is as disappointing as were the words of President Obama in his State of the Union message to Congress. The time for empty words is over.

For many years, Republican intransigence was responsible for blocking comprehensive and fair immigration reform. Now the White House and Congress are in the hands of Democrats and the stalemate continues. House and Senate leadership are responsible for failing to place immigration reform on the agenda, and for failing to influence their ranks so that legislation is brought forward for consideration.

The editorial closes with a paragraph that should make all Democrats shudder:

Promises made during elections win votes and create hope.  The commitment to immigration reform attracted many votes and fed the hopes of millions of working people. Now Congress must keep its promise.

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Posted 02/10/10 at 02:27pm By Frank Sharry

Republicans At War on Immigration—Here’s Why

Cross-Posted at Huffington Post:

Earlier this week, the organization I head, America’s Voice, released a new report entitled, "The Power of the Latino Vote in America: They Tipped Elections in 2008; Where Will they be in 2010?"

The detailed findings highlight the many potential benefits – and potential perils – for both major political parties. The report tracks 40 races for 2010 in 12 states—29 U.S. House races, 8 U.S. Senate races and 3 gubernatorial races—and shows that Latino voter turn out as well as the candidates’ positions on immigration reform will a huge impact on the outcomes.

One finding is that Democrats have to deliver on their promises of change – on the economy and immigration – or risk a depressed base. To wit, just last week Mark DiCamillo of the highly-regarded Field Poll in California found that Senator Barbara Boxer's reelection could be in serious jeopardy if Latino turnout is low this November.

Republicans also face a steep challenge when it comes to Latino voters, and we are seeing this play out as a virtual war within the party on immigration.

The way immigration has been handled by most Republicans has badly damaged the GOP brand.  And while immigration is not the number one issue for most Latino voters, it is a defining issue.  So much so that an overwhelming 87% of respondents in a 2009 Bendixen poll said they would not consider voting for a candidate who was in favor of forcing most of the undocumented population to leave the country and only 23% trusted congressional Republicans to “do the right thing on the immigration issue.”

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Posted 02/02/10 at 02:06pm By Jackie Mahendra

Warning to Democrats on Immigration Reform

Yesterday, Rep. Luis Gutierrez sent a political warning to his fellow Democrats: If immigration reform doesn’t pass, as promised, Latinos won’t vote.

Without progress, the congressman warned that many Latinos would stay home from the polls.

According to exit polls, Obama received 70% of the Latino vote in 2008, boosting him to victory in the swing states of Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida.

A poll last December by Latino Decisions, a research team specializing in the Latino vote, found that significant numbers of Latino voters would defect without passage of immigration reform.

"Democrats have to be very careful that they don't push Latinos from frustration to an active attitude of punishing them for inaction," said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, a nonpartisan public policy analysis organization.

America’s Voice has been saying the same thing for months. The reason Barack Obama won states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida was because of heightened Latino turnout and support. As a candidate, President Obama promised to pass immigration reform during his first year in office, winning him strong support among Latinos that continued through 2009. A poll conducted by Bendixen and Associates last May showed that 72% of Latinos trusted the president to keep that promise to pass reform, and 83% trust that he will ultimately "do the right thing" on immigration.

An under-reported development in 2008 was also the swing within the Latino immigrant vote (foreign-born, naturalized citizens who are Latino) – which swung from 52-48 Kerry-Bush to 75-25 Obama-McCain.  Not only is the Latino immigrant vote a highly volatile segment of the Latino electorate, but immigration reform with a path to earned citizenship is a top issue priority for these voters.

In other words, Latino immigrant voters, are the group that Democrats need to consolidate and that Republicans can potentially0020chip away at (they can call it a “reconquista”).

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Posted 01/15/10 at 10:04am By Frank Sharry

On Immigration, Sen. John Cornyn Can’t Have it Both Ways

Cross-posted at Huffington Post.

We couldn’t agree more with Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) when he says President Obama:

"...Must lead on immigration by offering specific proposals to secure our borders, upholding the rule of law and treating illegal immigrants with justice and compassion."

But saying the right thing is not the same as doing the right thing.

Though Sen. Cornyn has consistently said we need comprehensive immigration reform, he has also consistently voted against it – even when there was a bill strongly supported by a Republican administration. Cornyn’s actions don’t match his words and that’s the kind of “consistency” real supporters of immigration reform can do without.

It makes us wonder if Cornyn has been giving these same mixed messages to his constituents in Texas. The political landscape in Texas is changing rapidly, in large part because of Latinos:

Latinos comprise 63% of the population growth in Texas since 2000 and are the single largest reason that the state is projected to gain four seats in the U.S. House—the greatest change, positive or negative, among any state in the nation.

And, Latinos care deeply about immigration reform. In fact, a recent poll of Latino voters "found that 84% of Latino voters think it is either 'important, very important, or extremely important' that immigration reform is enacted before the 2010 midterm elections."

Cornyn serves as a member of the Republican leadership in the Senate. He chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), which is GOP’s campaign committee. From that perch, Cornyn should also be urging his fellow Republicans to follow suit. As a side note, when the immigration debate began back in 2006, the Senate GOP caucus had 55 members. Today, there are 40. And, the Democrat who chaired the Democrat’s campaign committee in 2006 and 2008, Chuck Schumer, is leading the effort to pass comprehensive immigration reform this year.

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