America's Voice Blog

Posted 02/03/12 at 04:40pm By Maribel Hastings

Nevada: How The West Will Be Won

voz y voto

Note: America's Voice's Maribel Hastings, who wrote this post, is in Nevada covering the GOP caucus. She'll be filing regular reports on the campaign as part of our "Voz Y Voto 2012" series.

LAS VEGAS--Although the Republican primary process has barely begun, Mitt Romney is looking like the inevitable nominee. This Saturday, he's expected to repeat his 2008 triumph in the Nevada caucus, winning a state that will be decisive in the fight for the White House in November, and where the Latino vote will be instrumental.

Latinos represent 27% of the population in Nevada, and 15% of voters eligible to cast ballots in November.

Attention has already centered around what the race between Romney and Barack Obama will look like here. Obama won 76% of the Latino vote in the 2008 elections, with 22% going to Republican John McCain. Among all voters, Obama won 55% of the vote to McCain's 43%.

Immigration played a central role in that election, as Obama's promise to move comprehensive immigration reform mobilized Latino voters, especially naturalized citizens, to support him in Nevada and other key states.

Many Latinos in Nevada aren't just facing high unemployment rates and the housing crisis, but also the lack of those expected reforms. 

Some Democrats recognize that the failure to pass immigration reform poses a challenge for Democrats in their efforts to mobilize the Latino vote in Nevada.

But they reason that the Republican candidates--particularly presumptive nominee Romney--aren't offering a viable alternative to Latino voters. To the contrary, they're making Democrats' jobs easier by mobilizing Latinos to vote against their hard-line policies.

Romney, for example, opposes comprehensive immigration reform and the DREAM Act, which have overwhelming support among Latino voters. One of Romney's (unpaid) advisers on immigration policy is Kris Kobach, architect of the harshest anti-immigrant laws in the country-including those in Alabama, Arizona and South Carolina--and of the concept of "attrition through enforcement," "which consists of making life impossible for undocumented immigrants so they will decide to leave the country, even if it means separation from their families. Others call this "self-deportation."

Vicenta Montoya, of the group Sí Se Puede Democratic Caucus, admits that it's possible that some Latinos who voted for Obama in 2008 will decide not to vote this time, "but I don't think they're going to vote for a Republican.  It's ridiculous, because what Republicans are saying goes totally against the Latino community," she said.

And Republicans shouldn't underestimate the power that immigration has to mobilize Latino voters in these parts.

Maybe they should make a call to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who retained his seat--and a Democratic majority in the Senate--in November 2010 when Nevada's Latinos supported him at the polls and led him to defeat Republican Sharron Angle, who ran an anti-immigrant campaign that portrayed immigrants as criminals.

In that same election, Nevada elected Republican Brian Sandoval to the governorship. Republicans rapidly began to use Sandoval as an example of how Republican candidates could get elected in states with large Hispanic populations. What Republicans didn't realize was that Sandoval won only 15% of the Latino vote in his state, thanks to his support for SB 1070 in the neighboring state of Arizona.

According to Fernando Romero, president of Hispanics in Politics, the oldest Hispanic political organization in Nevada, the next Republican nominee won't put up much of a fight against Obama for the Latino vote in the state.

"It's one of the reasons why Latinos don't show up to the caucus, because the Republican Party offers nothing positive to our community," he added.

To Romero, Latinos' choice in November is clear. "Even though many [Latinos] say they're not going to vote, they know that any of the four Republicans in the race is in favor of hurting us. We have no other option," he said.

And if Romney is the nominee, "when all the negative things he's said about our community come out, I don't think that people who have friends, relatives, loved ones, neighbors who are undocumented are going to support Romney."

Even, he added, if Republicans put a Hispanic on the ticket as Romney's running mate: Florida Senator Marco Rubio or Governors Sandoval of Nevada or Susana Martinez of New Mexico.

"Sandoval's the one who's gotten the least involved on the issue of immigration, and since supporting SB 1070 in 2010 he hasn't said anything, either positive or negative. And if Brian, the most moderate of the three of them, didn't get support from Latinos in his own state despite the fact that his last name is Sandoval, it's going to be very tough for Romney. Rubio's suddenly softening his rhetoric a little, but it's too late because we already know what's in his heart. And on Martinez, no comment. Her actions say it all," Romero explained.

Alex Garza, the vice president of Hispanics in Politics--and a Republican--said that "what's happening is that the rhetoric is out of control."

In his opinion, Democrats have been able to use the immigration issue to their advantage, even though they ultimately haven't kept their promises of reform. But on the other side of the aisle, "the Republican Party shouldn't promote policies of family separation.  Self-deportation isn't possible," said Garza, whose father was legalized under Ronald Reagan's 1986 amnesty.

This year, said Garza, will see a fierce fight for the Latino vote. He anticipates that while many Hispanic Democrats will stay loyal to their party, others will continue to register as independents--the largest swing group of voters that may decide the election.

The fight to win the West has already begun.

Posted 02/03/12 at 01:28pm By Adam Luna

Immigration & Latino Voters in Nevada: Why the 2008 & 2010 Results Are More Instructive for November

Welcome to Nevada SignFor the next few days, Nevada will be the center of the political universe.  But like the ad says, "what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas."  Simply, what happens in February won’t matter much in November.  That’s when the state will turn into a battleground.  And if the past two election cycles – and results of the 2010 Census – are any guide, the Latino vote and the issue of immigration reform will once again prove decisive in the 2012 general election—not only in the Presidential race, but in key House and Senate contests as well. 

Here are some of the relevant facts and figures to keep in mind about Nevada, as well as some analysis from my colleagues at America's Voice on the recent elections and what their results mean for the 2012 contests.

Latino voters are expanding their political clout in Nevada, and they care deeply about immigration

  • If there’s one number that you need to know it’s that in 2012, Latinos constitute 26% of the state’s population.  Latino Decisions estimates that Latinos will comprise 15% of Nevada’s registered voters by the 2012 general elections.

  • Nevada’s Latino population grew by 81.87% from 2000 to 2010 – 46% of all population growth in Nevada during the decade and the primary reason why Nevada gained an extra seat in Congress after the 2010 Census.

  • Nevada’s Latino electorate is largely comprised of Mexican-American voters, who are more directly affected by immigration issues than Cuban voters in Florida.  As the Center for American Progress recently wrote, “In contrast to Florida, where Mexicans make up 15 percent of the Latino population, in Nevada, Mexicans make up 78 percent of the Latino population.”

  • Immigration is a key, motivating issue for Nevada Latino voters.  In Latino Decisions’ election eve polling in 2010, 38% of Latino voters in Nevada said that immigration was the most important issue in determining their vote and another 31% said that it was “one of the most important” issues.  Forty-four percent said immigration was the most important issue facing the Latino community that politicians should address.  In the same poll, 74% of Nevada Latino voters supported a path to citizenship for the undocumented while 76% opposed Arizona’s SB 1070.

2008: Obama flips Nevada and other states from red to blue, with help of Latino voters

  • President Obama got 55% of the vote in 2008 in Nevada, which was one of the four states in Obama’s column that George Bush won in 2004.  In each of those four states, which also includes Colorado, New Mexico and Florida, the Latino vote was a decisive factor in Obama’s win. 

  • Latino voters made up over 12% of the Nevada electorate in 2008 and Latino voter turnout there jumped over 164% between 2000 and 2008.  In 2008, 76% of Nevada Latinos voted for Barack Obama, helping him win a state that George W. Bush had won in both 2000 and 2004. 

2010: The immigration issue was key to erecting a “Latino firewall” in the West that led to Majority Leader Reid’s victory and ended the “Republican wave” at the Rockies

  • According to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D), Latinos were the deciding factor in his close race against Republican Sharron Angle in 2010.  In October 2011, Senate Majority Leader Reid said, “I would not be the majority leader in the United States Senate today, but for the Hispanics in Nevada.” 

  • Immigration was a major factor in driving Latino voters to the polls for Reid.  In 2010, 38% of Latino voters in Nevada said that immigration was the most important issue in determining their vote, according to Latino Decisions’ election eve polling, and another 31% said that it was “one of the most important” issues.  The Las Vegas Sun quoted Gilberto Ramirez, a first-time, recently-naturalized voter from Reno, explaining why Sharron Angle’s anti-Latino ads motivated him to vote and to support Senator Harry Reid: “She was depicting me as a gang member.  I served seven years in the Marine Corps.”

2012: Top of the ticket Republicans are anti-immigrant – and that matters

  • Mitt Romney has already seared his image as an anti-immigrant candidate into the minds of Latino voters.  Romney’s vow to veto the DREAM Act and his continued calls for self-deportation of undocumented immigrants are reverberating in the Latino community – and will continue through November.  As noted below, DREAMers were protesting outside of Romney's Las Vegas office yesterday. We have a feeling he'll be seeing a lot more of them. Romney is also being advised by Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, the author of Arizona’s SB 1070, which is strongly opposed by Latinos in Nevada.  Kobach is also a former attorney for the legal arm of the FAIR – which has been labeled an anti-immigrant hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center.

  • In the 2012 Senate race in Nevada, labeled a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, the appointed incumbent, Republican Dean Heller, has established his anti-immigrant credentials early, in stark contrast with the Democratic Senate candidate, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley (who represents many of Nevada's Hispanic neighborhoods).  The issue is already playing out badly for Heller, who appears poised to make the same mistakes as Sharron Angle.  As the Associated Press wrote in early January, “Heller's appearance at a monthly Hispanics in Politics meeting was intended to be an olive branch toward the Hispanic community after he cancelled a meeting with the Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce in October, prompting accusations from some Hispanic leaders that Heller was shunning the Latino community.  But the meeting quickly evolved into a debate on immigration, with Heller repeating his opposition to illegal immigration several times, even as Hispanic leaders warned him that the stance could alienate some Latino voters. Heller also reiterated his support for an overhaul of the 14th Amendment...”

  • Latinos are also poised to play key roles in House contests.  The Cook Political Report currently lists NV-4 and NV-3 as races to watch, and considers NV-3 to be highly competitive.  In NV-3, 13.67% of voters are Latino.  In the newly-created NV-4 district, voter numbers are not yet available, but Latinos comprise 27.26% of the district’s overall population. 

RESOURCES

Posted 02/03/12 at 11:55am By Maria Ponce

Nevada DREAMers Rally Outside of Romney’s Campaign Headquarters

As part of our special primary and caucus election coverage, Voz y Voto 2012, I'm now in Las Vegas with my colleague, Maribel Hastings, reporting on where the GOP presidential hopefuls stand on immigration.

Another group that has been actively following the GOP candidates and demanding clear answers from them -- particularly from Mitt Romney on wether or not he supports DREAMers -- are DREAM Act activists from around the country.

Yesterday, days before the GOP caucus election here in Nevada, we ran into some of the same persistent DREAMers from Florida’s direct action, outside of Romney's campaign headquarters in Las Vegas.

The DREAMers, along with Nevada DREAMer, Astrid Silva, attempted to hand deliver a letter to Mitt Romney or his staff asking the Governor to support their dreams. But instead, they were surprised to find that the doors to his campaign office were locked and no one was in sight from his staff to hear their request. 

However, the DREAMers did get to talk to a couple of his campaign volunteers who were returning from their lunch break and found themselves locked out of the campaign offices with the DREAMers. They were forced to listen to the DREAMers' request.

Watch here: 

To recap, last week in Florida, DREAMers Cesar Vargas, Erika Andiola and Felipe Matos attempted to talk to Romney and ask him why he doesn't support the DREAM Act. (In case you missed it, check out some of the footage here).  Some time earlier in New York, another DREAMer, Lucy, made her way into a Romney event and asked him, point blank: “Are you going to support the DREAM Act.”

“I already said, across the country, I would veto the Dream Act” the GOP frontrunner answered.

Romney has called the DREAM Act a "handout" and has promised to veto the bill should it come up during a Romney presidency. Only recently did he say that he would support gutting the DREAM Act by allowing a path towards citizenship for DREAMers who are willing to serve in the military -- a job that not even most AMERICAN citizens willingly enlist for.

In fact, not only did DREAMers attempt to get clear answers from Mitt Romney, but they also tried to get an answer from Florida's Senator, Marco Rubio, who doesn't support the DREAM Act as it stands now. We were able to get footage of the brave DREAMers interrupting Marco Rubio's speech.

Stay tuned here for more from Nevada. I'll be keeping you updated.

Posted 02/02/12 at 05:25pm By Mahwish Khan

In NYT Editorial, DREAMer Explains the Real Meaning Behind Romney’s “Self-Deportation” Policy

New York In an op-ed today in the New York Times, Antonio Alarcon, a 17 year old DREAMer, describes living life without his parents who “self-deported” to Mexico. As he explains, "self-deportation" is a term that Mitt Romney made popular in a Florida GOP debate. But the idea has some harsh, real-life consequences, particularly for the 11 million undocumented immigrants who are living in this country. His story encompasses a good number of those tragedies. Here's an excerpt, but read the whole thing. It's really worth it:

ONE of my happiest childhood memories is of my parents at my First Communion. But that’s because most of my memories from that time are of their being absent. They weren’t there for my elementary school graduation, or for parent-teacher conferences.

From the time I was just a baby in Mexico, I lived with my grandparents while my parents traveled to other Mexican states to find work. I was 6 in 2000 when they left for the United States. And it took five years before they had steady jobs and were able to send for me. We’ve been together in this country ever since, working to build a life. Now I am 17 and a senior in high school in New York City. But my parents have left again, this time to return to Mexico.

Last week, when asked in a debate what America should do about the 11 million undocumented immigrants living here, Mitt Romney said he favored “self-deportation.” He presented the strategy as a kinder alternative to just arresting people. Instead, he said, immigrants will “decide they can do better by going home because they can’t find work here.”

But really this goes along with a larger movement in states like Arizona and Alabama to pass very tough laws against immigrants in an attempt to make their lives so unbearable that they have no choice but to leave. People have called for denying work, education and even medical treatment to immigrants without documentation; many immigrants have grown afraid of even going to the store or to church.

The United States is supposed to be a great country that welcomes all kinds of people. Does Mr. Romney really think that this should be America’s solution for immigration reform?

You could say that my parents have self-deported, and that it was partly a result of their working conditions. It’s not that they couldn’t find work, but that they couldn’t find decent work. My dad collected scrap metal from all over the city, gathering copper and steel from construction sites, garbage dumps and old houses. He earned $90 a day, but there was only enough work for him to do it once or twice a week. My mom worked at a laundromat six days a week, from 6 a.m. until 6 p.m., for $70 a day.

Here's the conclusion, but, again, read it all:

Immigrants have made this country great. We are not looking for a free ride, but instead we are willing to work as hard as we can to show that we deserve to be here and to be treated like first-class citizens. Deportation, and “self-deportation,” will result only in dividing families and driving them into the shadows. In America, teenagers shouldn’t have to go through what I’m going through.

No teenager should go through what Antonio Alarcon is going through. 

Posted 02/02/12 at 04:27pm By Van Le

Rachel Maddow Show Reports on the History of Self-Deportation: “It’s a Joke!”

As we noted below, there's a lot of conversation about Mitt Romney's self-deportation policy. “This American Life,” the New York Times Lede blog and the Rachel Maddow show this week all put out pretty amusing historical pieces on the concept of self-deportation and its origins as a hysterical, satirical joke.

To jog your memory: Mitt Romney uttered the phrase a couple of weeks ago at a Florida debate, in response to a question about how he would get undocumented immigrants to leave the U.S. without ordering mass deportations.  His answer:

The answer is self-deportation, which is people decide they could do better by going home because they can’t find work here because they don’t have legal documentation to allow them to work here.

Since then, editorial boards, commentators, and organizations—including ours—have been hard at work trying to explain to people what self-deportation really means.  “This American Life,” the Lede blog, and the Rachel Maddow show want to supplement with some historical context:

“It’s a joke!” Maddow says during her segment on the topic.  “It’s satire.”

According to “This American Life”:

There is an argument to be made that the term self-deportation was invented in 1994 by two Mexican-American satirists, Lalo Alcaraz and Esteban Zul. That year, “sickened” by a ballot initiative known as Proposition 187, which aimed to prohibit illegal immigrants from using state-run hospitals and schools in California, the comedians began posing as conservative activists who backed the measure.

The comics called on all minorities in the state of California to follow Prop 187 to its natural conclusion and “self-deport.”  They created a fictional “militant self-deportationist” called Daniel D. Portado (get it?  D-port…) to be the face of their blowhard anti-immigrant positions.  Forming a satirical group called “Hispanics for Wilson” (as in, then-California Governor Pete Wilson (R), who was pushing Prop 187), they offered to “retrain white collar workers and middle management in the agricultural, restaurant, and hotel maintenance arts, once illegal immigrants are displaced form these highly sought after fields.”  And they vowed to get Hispanics to stop speaking Spanish, except for the words “adios, amigo.”

Some people, however, didn’t get the joke.  Telemundo invited Daniel D. Portado on to give an interview as a proponent of Prop 187.  Governor Pete Wilson himself began using the term “self-deport,” notably in a conversation with New York Times Op-Ed columnist William Safire. 

"He used the exact phrase," Maddow says in her segment.  "This would be like Santorum launching a new campaign that said, 'Google me!'"

It is of course difficult to trace the origin and usage of a phrase, but a Lede blog Nexis search says that Wilson’s interview with Safire was the first printed record of him using that term—two months after Alcaraz and Zul began popularizing it.

Which is still not to say that Mitt Romney and Kris Kobach’s brand of self-deportation can be traced back to this origin.  As Maddow notes, Republican politics since the days of Prop 187 have grown ever more extreme.  "Something is out of whack in Republican politics around this issue," she says.  "Republican politics on immigration right now are so strange it's getting impossible to tell whether or not they are satire.”  

Romney and Kobach's concept of self-deportation is certainly not a joke: it’s led to a campaign of terror against Hispanics in Alabama and elsewhere (like Georgia and Arizona).  But still, the history of the term and its beginnings as a colossal joke are noteworthy.

Posted 02/02/12 at 02:54pm By Pili Tobar

What They’re Saying: Range of Observers Tear Apart Romney’s “Self-Deportation” Policy

latino voters self-deporting from gopEver since Mitt Romney issued his support for “self-deportation,” a policy also known as “attrition through enforcement,” voices from around the country have responded by highlighting just how unworkable and extreme a policy like this would be.  Among the reactions: Rachel Maddow points out that while Romney’s policy seems like a joke, it just isn’t funny, national editorial boards underscore the policy’s impracticality, and a New York Times op-ed by an American high school student highlights the painful toll “self-deportation” can have on immigrant families.

  • Rachel Maddow last night referenced how the term, “self-deportation,” originally started as a joke, but has now taken off as a serious immigration policy for the GOP.  “This is beyond not getting the joke. Something is out of whack in Republican politics around this issue...Republican politics on immigration right now are so strange it's getting impossible to tell whether or not they are satire.”

  • A Los Angeles Times editorial argued that Romney’s call for self-deportation “ignores the fact that the economic downturn has already made jobs scarce, yet few illegal workers have left. Or that undocumented immigrants, who make up nearly 5% of the workforce and more than half of all U.S. agricultural workers, are already subject to harsh working conditions and low wages. Furthermore, despite his claims to the contrary, the increased use of ID cards and the E-Verify system will not prevent employers from hiring illegal immigrants, but will only drive them further into an underground economy… In the coming months, the GOP front-runners can't expect voters, especially Latinos, to settle for fictional solutions.”

  • The Washington Post editorial board also weighed in, in an piece titled “The ‘self-deportation’ fantasy,” calling Romney’s policy “snappy and sound-biteble…The idea’s inanity is masked by its allure for some who hate illegal immigration but concede that mass roundups and deportations would be unseemly and prohibitively expensive. Better, they say, that illegal immigrants leave under their own steam — and pay their travel expenses, too… The problem is a broken system and politicians who cannot bring themselves to reconcile the hard reality of illegal immigration with their own slogans. Sensible reform would include tight enforcement as well as adequate admissions of guest workers for industries that need them and, critically, a path to legalization for undocumented immigrants. They’re not leaving, notwithstanding the fantasy of ‘self-deportation.’”

  • Antonio Alarcón, an American high school student who knows first-hand the pain of living in a divided family, shared his story in a New York Times op-ed today. “The United States is supposed to be a great country that welcomes all kinds of people. Does Mr. Romney really think that this should be America’s solution for immigration reform?”  Living the reality of what the GOP is touting, Antonio said, “ I don’t think this is something that our presidential candidates should encourage or be proud of.”

Posted 02/02/12 at 10:09am By Mahwish Khan

In Kobach’s Home State, Business Leaders Want to Allow Undocumented Immigrants to Have Jobs

welcome to kansasKris Kobach authored Arizona's SB 1070 and Alabama's HB 56. He also confirmed to the AP earlier that he's "serving as an unpaid adviser on immigration issues" to Republican Mitt "I believe in self-deportation" Romney. Kobach's mission is to inflict so much hardship on immigrants that they leave the U.S, a process called "attrition through enforcement." While Kobach his wreaking havoc on the immigrant families and the economies of other states, the Agriculture Secretary wants to create a program to allow undocumented immigrants to work:

Facing pressure from large dairies and feedlots desperate for workers, Kansas Agriculture Secretary Dale Rodman is seeking a federal waiver that would allow companies to hire illegal immigrants.

Rodman has met several times with officials at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security about launching a pilot program that would place employers and illegal immigrants in a special state-organized network. The Topeka Capital-Journal reported that the goal is to create a legal, straightforward manner of organizing existing immigrant labor.

So far, Homeland Security has neither approved nor rejected the idea. “I need a waiver,” Rodman said. “It would be good for Kansas agriculture.”

Rodman's proposal is supported by the GOP-leaning business community:

The coalition pushing the new program includes agriculture groups with memberships that traditionally lean toward the GOP, as well as the Kansas Chamber of Commerce, another stalwart supporter of conservative Republicans.

So the people who work in agriculture and run businesses need undocumented immigrants to fill jobs. We'll see if Kobach will do to the Kansas economy what he's done to Alabama's -- $11 billion and counting. (Despite what Kobach thinks.)

Posted 02/02/12 at 06:03am By Maribel Hastings

The Cuban vote and the Latino vote: not the same thing, and not the same size

voz y votoNote: America's Voice's Maribel Hastings, who wrote this post, is in Nevada covering the GOP caucus. She'll be filing regular reports on the campaign as part of our "Voz Y Voto 2012" series.

MIAMI-To many, the winner of last night's primary in the Sunshine State has practically guaranteed himself the Republican presidential nomination. Erasing his loss four years ago, Mitt Romney, the improbable candidate, won Florida on the way to his coronation as Barack Obama's opponent this November.

His triumph in Florida also marked the official start, in some respects, of the fight for the Latino vote at the national level -- even though there's still some way to go before the end of the primary process.

And while some Republicans understand that they'll need to adjust their message on immigration in order to be competitive in the fight for the Latino vote in a general election, others, including Romney himself, continue to promote hardline positions on the issue.

In Florida the issue of immigration wasn't predominate in a Republican primary where the central voters were Cuban and Cuban-American, concentrated primarily in Miami-Dade County in South Florida. 

Romney got 54% of Latinos who voted in the Republican primary, according to exit polls.

But this percentage shouldn't be taken as an indication that Romney has locked up the Latino vote at the national level.

In 2008, Romney lost the Florida primary to John McCain, who won a high percentage of the Latino vote. McCain became the nominee, but lost Florida to Obama in the general election and only won 31% of the Latino vote nationally, after he distanced himself from his immigration reform bill and started promoting hard-line policies.

Romney won in Florida backed by Cuban-American Republican leaders like brothers, Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart, a congressman and an ex-congressman respectively, and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. All of them are defenders, advocates and authors of proposals for immigration reform and the DREAM Act; Romney, meanwhile, has rejected both of these proposals, and instead promotes "self-deportation" policies and the military component only of the DREAM Act.

Arguing that the economy is the central issue of this election cycle, some believe, erroneously, that the issue of immigration won't play a role in the general election, and that it won't influence whether and for whom Latinos vote in November.

But the Romney campaign would be making a big mistake to think that its triumph in Florida, with the support of Cuban and Cuban-American voters, means it has the national Latino vote on its side-especially without changing the candidate's immigration positions.

Bear in mind that Cuban-Americans make up only 5% of all Latino voters nationally, and that not even within Florida is the Latino vote monolithic. Bear in mind also that to be competitive against Obama and eventually recapture the White House, Republicans need 40% of the Latino vote-and that recent polls of Latino voters, like one last week from Latino Decisions, Univision and ABC News, have found that in an Obama-Romney matchup, the Republican frontrunner would win only 25%.

The primary campaign is now moving to states out west, where the Latino vote is different from that in Florida. In these states, the negative tone that has dominated the debate among Republicans, combined with Republican support for anti-immigrant state bills and the failure to pass sensible solutions like immigration reform and the DREAM Act, are resented by a Latino electorate for whom immigration is a defining issue.

Even Republican strategist and analyst Alex Castellanos declared last night on CNN that the primary in Florida (which was limited to registered Republicans) was dominated by Cuban-American voters, but now the process moves to states in the West, where "It's a very different story. These are a different kind of Hispanic voter. So all of a sudden, the tone, I think, does make all the difference in the world."

Former Florida governor Jeb Bush has already warned that if Republicans don't change the tone of their message on immigration -- and I would add their substance -- it will mean bad news for Republicans in the general election when they try to win over Latino voters.

On Sunday, we asked former congressman, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, if after Romney won in Florida and began to look toward the general election, he anticipated the candidate would soften the tone of his message and his proposals on the issue of immigration to fight Obama more effectively for the Latino vote.

The ex-congressman, a defender of immigration reform, assured us that "my point of view will always be heard."

If true, it's now incumbent on Romney's campaign, when they talk about strategies to court the national Latino vote, to open their ears wide.

Posted 02/01/12 at 02:11pm By Pili Tobar

2012 by the Numbers: 10 Things To Know About the Latino Vote and What it Means

romney wins floridaWith Mitt Romney’s resounding victory in Florida’s Republican primary yesterday, bolstered by 54% support from Latino voters, it is important to put Romney’s victory in context.  What does it mean for the general election competition for the Latino vote, in Florida and beyond?  Below are 10 numbers that provide that context: 

  • 2008 -  The 2008 elections illustrate the limited predictive value of Florida’s Republican primary – both among Latino voters and overall.  Bolstered by 54% support from Latino Republican primary voters, John McCain won the 2008 Florida Republican primary.  However, Barack Obama won majority support from Florida Latinos in the general election, 57%-42% over McCain, helping to deliver Florida’s electoral votes to President Obama.  In 2012, Romney won the same percentage of Latino votes in the Republican primary that McCain did, but is currently polling behind Obama among Latinos in the state.  Per Univision-ABC-Latino Decisions, President Obama is currently polling ahead of Mitt Romney among Florida Latino voters by a 50%-40% margin.
  • 3% - Only 3% of Florida Republican primary voters listed “illegal immigration” as their top voting issue in yesterday’s Florida exit polling.  The same was true in other early voting states such as Iowa.  As we look toward the general election, it remains true that Latino voters are the sole voter group for whom immigration is a defining, voting issue – and that Latino voters are adamantly opposed to Romney’s hardline immigration policies.
  • 64% - The percentage of 2012 Republican primary voters in Florida exit polling who believe that the “best policy toward illegal immigrants” does not involve deportation.  A plurality of respondents (38%) stated, “apply for citizenship” and an additional 27% supported “stay as temporary workers.”  Meanwhile, only 30% of Florida Republican primary voters supported “deport,” the policy approach that most closely mirrors Romney’s.  Romney’s hardline stance continues to make little political sense given the overwhelming favor for non-deportation options even among Republicans, and the salience of this issue for Latinos.   
  • 32% - As many have recently noted, Cuban-American voters are more Republican and less animated by immigration issues than other Latino voter demographic groups, both in Florida and across the country.  Additionally, Florida’s Latino electorate is diversifying, as today Cuban-American voters only comprise 32% of all registered Latino voters in Florida’s electorate. 
  • 112,000 - As Florida’s Latino electorate diversifies, it is growing more Democratic.  Currently, there are approximately 112,000 more registered Latino Democratic voters in Florida than registered Latino Republican voters.  Even Cuban-Americans are growing more Democratic, especially among the U.S.-born second generation.
  • 36% vs. 49% - In the latest Univision-ABC-Latino Decisions poll, 36% of Cuban-American voters labeled immigration as the most important issue facing the Latino community for Congress and the President to address, compared with half of Mexican-American voters in the poll.  As Victoria DeFrancesco Soto of Latino Decisions explains, Cuban-Americans “simply are not as personally affected by the issue as Mexican immigrants.”
  • 31 - The combined Electoral Vote total provided by the Latino-vote heavy – and Mexican-American vote-heavy – swing states of Arizona (11 EV), Colorado (9 EV), Nevada (6 EV), and New Mexico (5 EV).  Add in Florida (29 EV), whose Latino voter population is split three ways among Cubans, Puerto Ricans and other Latinos more directly affected by immigration, and the total climbs to 60 Electoral Votes up for grabs in major Latino swing states.
Posted 02/01/12 at 11:08am By Mahwish Khan

Action Needed: Stop the GOP’s Plan to Target and Punish Immigrant Families

tax formsThis week, The New York Times blasted the latest GOP scheme to punish immigrant families:

House Republicans have hit upon a noxious scheme to help pay for an extension of the payroll tax cut: a tax increase on millions of poor working families. A bill passed by the House and now in conference seeks to deny cash refunds under the child tax credit to those who file tax returns using “individual taxpayer identification numbers” issued by the Internal Revenue Service. Only those using Social Security numbers would be eligible.

The refundable portion of the child tax credit is a life-saver for the working poor. Families that would be cut off by this policy change make an average of $21,000 per year, according to the Treasury Department. They would lose an average of $1,800. About 80 percent of those families are Hispanic. The taxpayer identification numbers are used frequently, though not exclusively, by unauthorized immigrants to pay the taxes because they are not eligible for Social Security numbers. The I.R.S. accepts their tax payments and allows families to claim the child tax credit regardless of immigration status. This policy is an effective antipoverty tool that protects children, most of whom are American-born citizens.

The Republicans who have flatly rejected tax increases on the rich have settled instead on limiting this refund, which kept about 1.3 million children from falling into poverty in 2009.

America's Voice is joining with our allies to stop this from happening. We need your help. Here's the action alert from the National Immigrant Law Center:

Though 2012 has just begun, Congress is right now considering a tax change that will hurt children in mixed status families.  Legislators have proposed funding a payroll tax break extension by denying critical tax credits for children in the lowest income immigrant families – even as millionaires are protected.  

Under the House of Representatives’ proposal, a taxpayer or spouse must have a Social Security Number to be eligible for the Child Tax Credit – a tax credit that is designed to keep working families from falling into poverty.  This means that millions of  working immigrant families who file using the Individual Taxpayer Identification Number will effectively receive tax increases.  It is expected that these families will lose on average $1,800 of much-needed tax credits, forcing immigrant parents to cut back on essential items for their children.

We need you to help us fight this change! On Wednesday and Thursday, NILC and other organizations are organizing a national call-in day to protect working immigrant families. Please call (202) 224-3121 and ask to be connected with House of Representatives Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and members of the tax package conference, and  your representative to tell them that you OPPOSE funding the payroll tax credit on the backs of working families. (emphasis added)

Together, we must tell our legislators to live up to their pledge of fairness and equality and reject any changes to eligibility for the Child Tax Credit.  

Please call (202) 224-3121. It really matters. 

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