America's Voice Blog

Posted 08/31/11 at 05:18pm By Van Le

Latino Voters Continue to Grow in Influence, but Still No Love From the GOP

voting boothAs we’ve written about in post after post, a seismic demographic change is underway in the U.S., but both political parties still seem to be ignoring the facts and their electoral implications.

An article in today’s New York Times underscores the numbers:

Minorities accounted for 98 percent of the population growth in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas over the past decade, according to a new report, as the country’s white population continued to stagnate, and in many places, decline.

Hispanics and Asians led population growth in the country’s 100 largest metropolitan areas over the past decade, growing by 41 percent and 43 percent respectively. The population of blacks grew by 12 percent, and the aging white population was largely flat, increasing by less than 1 percent.

What does this population increase mean?  It means that immigrants are keeping America young and dynamic while the rest of the Western world is growing old.  It means that immigrants will help maintain a steady labor base as the extra-large baby boomer generation ages and retires.  And it means that the immigrant vote—in particular the Latino vote—will grow in influence, especially in key swing states like Colorado, Florida, and Nevada.   

What are these voters, with their newfound clout, going to be most interested in?  An ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions poll found that a near-majority of Latino voters rank immigration as their top priority, a greater percentage than those who named jobs/economy or education.  A second poll found that 53% of Latino voters personally know someone who is undocumented, while 25% personally know someone who has been deported or is facing deportation proceedings.

While the Latino vote typically skews Democrat, a 35% approval rating on how Obama has handled immigration means that the demographic is up for grabs.  Unfortunately, the Republicans, right now just kicking off a primary campaign full of immigrant bashing and border-fence-worshipping, are too pandering to the nativist flanks of their party to focus on the true demographic prize.  Even Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey, a leading architect of the Tea Party movement, had to comment on how the GOP is shooting itself in the foot:

Who in the Republican Party was the genius that said that now that we have identified the fastest-growing demographic in America, let’s go out and alienate it?...Republicans have got to get off this goofiness…Ronald Reagan said, ‘Tear down that wall.’  Tom Tancredo said, ‘Build that wall.’  Who’s right?

The next GOP primary debate has been set for next week, September 7.  That means the candidates can spend another two hours on television lamenting about border security and evading questions on immigration…or they can actually do the smart thing and put forth a decent, common-sense proposal on immigration reform.

Posted 06/02/11 at 04:12pm By Matt Hildreth

Latest Census Numbers Confirm That Alienating Hispanic Voters Will Cost Elections

Alex Sink SunkEditor’s Note: If you’re attending Netroots Nation this year in Minneapolis, be sure to attend our panel with Representative Luis Gutierrez (D-IL); Markos Moulitsas, founder of Daily Kos; Eliseo Medina, Secretary-Treasurer of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU); Maribel Hastings, Spanish Language Reporter/Blogger; and Adam Luna, Political Director at America's Voice, titled: Immigration and the Power of the Latino Vote: Why Harry Reid Came Back and Alex Sink Sunk. We'll be liveblogging it, too.

A short but compelling lesson in history:

Leading up to the 2010 elections, polling showed immigration to be the second most important concern of Latinos (after the economy).

Still, the Alex Sink (Florida's Democratic candidate for Governor last year) campaign made a strategic decision to deemphasize immigration and the Latino vote. She ultimately received only 48 percent of the state’s Hispanic vote and lost the race by a single percentage point.

Political scientists believe that the decision to ignore her Latino base cost her the election, and that is the story of how Alex Sink lost -- hopefully learning with it the real power of the Latino vote.

If the example isn't enough to convince politicians to stop alienating Hispanic voters, the latest Census numbers might.

Last week the Census released its most up to date data on the Hispanic population in the US, and the numbers don’t look good for the anti-immigrant wing of the GOP.

The numbers show that between 2000 and 2010, the Hispanic population grew over four times faster than the overall population in the South and 12 times faster in the Midwest. In fact, the Hispanic population is growing way faster than any other demographic in the country, and this growth isn’t going unnoticed in Washington.

Click here to read more.
Posted 05/31/11 at 11:22am By Mahwish Khan

North Carolina’s Changing Demographics Include a Doubling of the Latino Population Since 2000

north carolina demographicsOver the next year and a half, we'll read many articles about the role key states will play in the 2012 elections. Today, the Washington Post takes a look at the changing demographics of North Carolina. Obama won that state in 2008 by a slim margin. Both parties intend to make a play for North Carolina's electoral votes. Overall, the state is changing demographically and politically. Not surprisingly, Latino voters are a key factor in this change:

Not all Republicans are ready to abandon the “Southern strategy,” a game plan that Helms famously used to great effect as recently as 1990 with a TV ad stoking white resentment over affirmative action. Even last year, amid a Republican surge, the tactic appeared in some rural corners in the form of a racially provocative mail piece.

Paid for by the state GOP and sent into a half-dozen legislative districts, the mailer took aim at a North Carolina law passed by Democrats that allows death-row inmates to appeal their sentences on the grounds of racial bias.

“It had a photo of a black person who was intended to look like a criminal,” said Joe Hackney, the Democratic minority leader of the state House.

But if those tactics still work in localized legislative races — as it is widely presumed they do — there is a growing belief that they are less effective statewide. [North Carolina GOP Chair and former Congressman Robin] Hayes said the GOP plans unprecedented outreach to blacks, Latinos and young voters.

“We’ve got specific goals and specific ideas that we’re using to let these constituencies, these strategic partners, know what we stand for,” he said.

Click here to read more.
Posted 04/21/11 at 12:18pm By Lynn Tramonte

Rep. Dan Lungren (R-CA) Is Extreme on Immigration—and Vulnerable Politically Because of It

Dan LungrenBack in the early 80s, during Dan Lungren’s first stint in Congress, he supported immigration reform – just like his fellow Californian, then-President Ronald Reagan.

Not anymore. Lungren is unabashed about his anti-immigrant views:

A path to citizenship is "what has doomed all immigration legislation in the last two administrations," California Republican Dan Lungren said during a recent House hearing on immigrant agricultural workers.

To be fair, Mr. Lungren, it wasn’t the path to citizenship that “doomed” immigration legislation in 2006, 2007, and 2010.  It was Republican opposition to the “path to citizenship.”  Something he, along with others have the power to change.

Lungren also has an important political reason to change that fact: self-preservation.   

This week, National Journal ranked Lungren as one of the “Top 10 Republicans Most Vulnerable to Redistricting”:

The incumbent protection plan California passed in 2002 gave this suburban Sacramento district parts of GOP-leaning outlying counties. Now, census results show Sacramento County is large enough to fully contain two districts, which could force Lungren, a nine-term veteran Republican, into a more compact and more Democratic district. In 2010, while many of his GOP colleagues were cruising to reelection, Lungren barely stumbled across the finish line and could be in more serious trouble against the same opponent in 2012.

Click here to read more.
Posted 04/18/11 at 04:57pm By Van Le

Latinos Hand Georgia New US House Seat; Get Arizona Immigration Copycat in Return

census bureauSince signing the infamous SB 1070 immigration bill into law last year, Arizona has gained a reputation as a nativist state hostile to immigrants and workers, suffered a boycott that has stifled the state’s tourism and convention industries, and faced a voter backlash so severe that residents have tried to secede—all for a law that has been struck down as unconstitutional and has yet to actually be enforced.

Georgia, apparently, can’t wait to sign up for the same fate. Arresting student activists, ignoring the state’s civil rights history, and snubbing protests from business, immigration, and faith groups in order to pass its own state immigration bill, the Georgia House and Senate voted for an SB 1070 copycat.  The bill, which would allow local police authorities to ask Georgians for proof of residency and give them power to detain those who could not produce papers, passed both chambers of the Georgia legislature last week and is expected to be signed into law by Governor Nathan Deal.

The problem?  Georgia will soon gain a new seat in Congress, largely due to growth in the state’s Latino population—the same Latino population that state lawmakers and Governor Deal are trying to drive out of the state.

As our own Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice, said: 

Georgia is a classic example of the Republican Party’s tone-deafness when it comes to the politics of immigration.  According to the results of the 2010 Census, Latinos played a key role in expanding the state’s power in Congress.  Yet, the state’s leaders are about to enact a law designed to make them leave.  Talk about shooting yourself in the foot.  Demographics is destiny, and Georgia Republicans would be wise to make peace with Latino voters and find a way to bring them into their tent, instead of trying to pass laws to get rid of them.  

Click here to read more.
Posted 04/13/11 at 01:14pm By Frank Sharry

Rep. Elton Gallegly’s Immigration Strategy Is Damaging the Republican Party (Ask Meg Whitman)

meg and eltonCalifornia’s 2010 GOP nominee for Governor, Meg Whitman, said this week that her party needs to change its rhetoric on immigration. Via the Los Angeles Times:

Former Republican gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman said Tuesday that her party must change its approach on immigration if it wants to be successful in California.

"My view is that the immigration discussion, the rhetoric the Republican Party uses, is not helpful; it's not helpful in a state with the Latino population we have," Whitman said during a brief interview following a speech at a George W. Bush Institute conference on the economy. "We as a party are going to have to make some changes, how we think about immigration, and how we talk about immigration."

She should know. The most reliable numbers on the 2010 elections came from an election eve poll of 3,200 Latino voters by Latino Decisions, a group that specializes in reaching Latino voters.  In California’s race for Governor. Whitman lost the Latino vote to Jerry Brown by a stunning margin of 86-13%. In the Senate race, the numbers were as equally astounding. Barbara Boxer beat Carly Fiorina among Latinos 86-14%.

Meanwhile, the most important Californian dealing with immigration is the one that most people have never heard of: Rep. Elton Gallegly. As the Chair of the U.S. House Subcommittee on Immigration, Gallegly is defining the GOP through his hard-line anti-immigration views. His efforts to pass a mass deportation strategy, couched as “attrition through enforcement,” could ruin the state’s economy – and his party’s prospects with Latino voters.

Amazingly, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, Gallegly has also recently [wrongly] asserted that this hard-line approach is actually embraced by Latino voters, saying:

“Republican support is growing among Hispanic voters because Republicans agree with U.S. citizens of Hispanic descent that illegal immigration hurts all Americans.”   

That’s far from the truth on many levels. In recent Latino Decisions polling, 47% of Latino voters rank immigration as their top issue, and 52% of Latino voters say the Democrats are doing a good job reaching out to Hispanics, while only 18% say the same about the GOP.  Thirty-six percent of Latinos said that the GOP “doesn’t care too much” about Latinos and another 30% said the Party is “hostile.”  Latino Decisions polling during the 2010 elections found that immigration was either the “most important” or “one of the most important” factors in the political choices of at least 60% of Latino voters.

Click here to read more.
Posted 04/12/11 at 09:09am By Mahwish Khan

Wall Street Journal: Census Shows Latinos “Could Present Republicans With a Challenge”

Wall Street Journal Interactive map of demographic changeFor some time now, we’ve been noting to our readers that the Latino population is growing – fast.  Our factual reports based off of the 2010 census are often followed by warnings, sometimes to Obama to keep his promise on passing immigration reform, but often to the GOP to soften their stance on issues that are important to Latino voters -- one of which happens to be immigration reform.

Yesterday, Patrick O’Connor of the Wall Street Journal helps make our case re: these new constituents in an article aptly titled "Latino Population Surge Poses Challenge to GOP:"

The explosive growth of the Hispanic population reflected in the 2010 census will remake the electoral map—and could present Republicans with a challenge.

Republicans have broadly benefited from the nation's continued population shift from the Northeast and Midwest to right-leaning Sun Belt states in recent decades, and those states are again expected to add seats in Congress in the next election.

But to take full advantage, Republicans will have to win over Latinos, who have fueled much of the population growth, and who lean Democratic in their voting. They accounted for 65% of the population growth in Texas over the past decade, 55% of the growth in Florida and nearly half of the population increase in Arizona and Nevada, census figures show. Those four states alone are due to add a combined eight congressional seats in the next election.

O’Connor compared population increases between 1980 and 2010. The article, which is accompanied by this trusty interactive map, shows that in each of the four regions, the white share of the population is shrinking.

Despite the changing demographics, some members of the GOP think that their positions on issues that matter to the Latino community aren’t as important as the last names of the people who are elected to represent them.  The idea, put forth primarily by Lamar Smith and his immigration subcommittee friends (notably the other two who make up the three amigos -- Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Steve King (R-(IA)), is misguided and wrong.  As we’ve noted in a report that we released last week, “ATTN GOP: Latino Candidates Not Enough to Win Latino Vote:”

Republican politicians are losing Latino voters because of the Party’s stance on immigration reform.  After passing the notorious Sensenbrenner bill in 2005 and Arizona’s S.B. 1070 law in 2010, and blocking progress on comprehensive immigration reform and the DREAM Act for the better part of ten years, Republican policymakers are seen as increasingly hostile to the Latino community, and Latinos are increasingly trending Democratic.  Latinos voted for the Democratic presidential nominee over the Republican by a margin of 59% to 40% in 2004 (Kerry-Bush) and 67% to 31% in 2008 (Obama-McCain).  The swing was even more pronounced among foreign-born Latino voters, with 52% choosing Kerry in 2004 and 48% choosing Bush—while in 2008 75% chose Obama and 25% supported McCain.  In 2010, a banner year for Republicans generally, Latinos supported Democrats over Republicans by 75%-25%, according to Latino Decisions.

But this is just another one of those blog posts, in which we have to warn someone or the other. Don't listen to us (or O'Connor), GOP. It's not as if you guys have ever operated on sound advice in the past. Why start now?

Posted 04/11/11 at 09:47am By Van Le

In New Mexico, Latino GOPer Martinez Lost Latino Vote 61% to 38%

susana martinezLast week, we released a new report from America’s Voice that examines (and demolishes) the claim that Republicans can maintain a hard line on immigration reform and still court the Latino vote simply by running Latino candidates.

This has been a key theme espoused by Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), the architect of the failed GOP immigration strategy to date. According to Smith:

“the 2010 election actually paints a very bright picture of the Republican Party's relations with this country's growing Hispanic population.”  

We’ve urged caution before if the GOP keeps relying on Smith as its leading Latino vote pundit. Here's why: based on the best data available, it’s pretty clear that the picture isn’t so "bright" after all.

We continue our coverage today with Governor of New Mexico Susana Martinez.

In 2010, Martinez defeated Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish, a Democrat, to become the first Latina governor in New Mexico’s history.  Martinez won despite a muted, if not hostile, Latino outreach campaign in which she proudly promised to repeal a law permitting undocumented immigrants to have driver’s licenses. She also opposed extending in-state college tuition to undocumented students living in New Mexico.  Her triumph in a lean-Democrat state, along with her background, put her on the GOP poster for diversity along with Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval and South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley.

Martinez defeated Denish with 53.6% of the vote to Denish’s 46.4%.  But according to our report, Martinez actually lost the Latino vote badly, with just 38% of Latinos voting for her while 61% broke for Denish.  This means that the net contribution of the Latino vote was 8.5 percentage points in Denish’s favor.

Here’s our full report on Martinez:

Latinos account for 32.6% of all registered voters in New Mexico. On the eve of the 2010 midterm elections, using more rigorous methodology than the national exit poll, Latino Decisions projected that Latinos would comprise 37% of midterm voters in this state.

The state’s Latino voters lean Democratic: according to a Latino Decisions poll conducted on the eve of the 2010 elections, 61% of Latino voters were registered Democrats, 16% were Republicans, and 22% were independents. In 2004, according to exit polls, John Kerry won 56% of the Latino vote to George W. Bush’s 44%; in 2008, President Obama beat John McCain among Latinos 69%‐30%.

Susana Martinez, the former District Attorney for Dona Ana County, defeated Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish in 2010 to become the first Latina governor in New Mexico’s history. However, with the exception of a Spanish‐language page on her website and one Spanish‐language television ad, in which she discussed prosecuting the abusive family of a murdered six‐month‐old Mexican‐American girl, Martinez’ outreach to Latino voters during the campaign was muted at best and hostile at worse.

Martinez took a hard line on immigration. Language on her campaign website played to fears over border crime, and failed to mention other immigration priorities: “Martinez’s office prosecutes over 600 cases related to border security every year and works with various law enforcement agencies to secure convictions against members of Mexico’s most violent drug cartels. Martinez understands first‐hand the threat these criminals pose to our state and will make securing the border a top priority.” The website also says that Martinez promises to repeal a law permitting undocumented immigrants to receive driver’s licenses and opposes extending in‐state college tuition to undocumented students living in New Mexico.

During the Republican primary, Martinez’ campaign released a television ad attacking opponent Allen Weh’s support for the comprehensive immigration reform bills of 2006 and 2007, calling them an “amnesty plan.”  She continued to use the issue to attack her opponent in the general election, Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. Early in the general election campaign, Martinez released a television ad saying that “a department in Denish’s cabinet gave sanctuary for criminal illegals.”

Since Martinez focused so much on immigration early in her campaign, there was concern that she might turn off moderate voters. A local political columnist wrote in July, “I have heard from many moderate Democratic and independent voters that they’re interested in Martinez’s candidacy. That’s critical, because she can’t win without those voters. Many of those people have told me they don’t know where Martinez stands on most issues. They do know about her far‐right stance on immigration – and it makes them nervous.”  However, opponent Diane Denish did not press the issue in the highly contentious general election campaign.

Martinez claimed during the campaign that “My focus has always been on the illegal immigrants who come here with the purpose of committing criminal acts,” but added that there were “an awful lot of individuals” who fit that description. Notably, given her harsh rhetoric on the issue and her state’s proximity to Arizona, Martinez managed to avoid taking a public position on whether she supported SB 1070, Arizona’s harsh immigration law, during the campaign.

Martinez won with 53.6% of the vote statewide to Denish’s 46.4%. But Latino Decisions’ election eve polling showed that 61% of Latinos voted for Denish, while just 38% supported Martinez—meaning that the net contribution of the Latino vote was 8.5 percentage points in Denish’s favor.

Republicans can keep being hardliners on immigration reform if they wish, and make themselves believe that Latino candidates will continue to deliver the Latino vote.  But with Hispanics constituting a rapidly-growing demographic, and with candidates’ positions on issues mattering more to voters than their ethnic identity, it’s only a matter of time before the numbers seal the GOP’s fate.

Posted 04/01/11 at 10:51am By Lynn Tramonte

GOP’s Top Latino Voting Pundit, Rep. Lamar Smith, Strikes (Out) Again

Lamar SmithGOP Congressman Lamar Smith (TX) has once again asserted himself as his party’s leading strategist on the Latino vote. He’s taking issue with Chris Cillizza’s recent analysis of census numbers, "The Republican’s Hispanic Problem."  We agree with Cillizza’s take. However, Smith is desperately trying to get his fellow Republicans to deny the facts and trends on Latino voters. Given his goal of forcing all 11 million undocumented immigrant out of the country (couched as “attrition through enforcement”), and the impact this policy has had on sending Latino voters into the arms of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party should heed his punditry with caution.

Mr. Smith continues to claim his party garnered 38% of the Latino vote in the 2010 elections – but he limits his analysis to exit polling results for House Republican races. It’s established that exit polls are fine for determining outcomes, but notoriously inaccurate when it comes to capturing the voting behavior of Latino voters.   One of the states Smith cites is Nevada. Let’s take a look at the numbers from Nevada. Exit polls appeared to show that the notoriously anti-immigrant Sharron Angle got 30% of the Latino vote in 2010. As a comparison, exit polls showed John McCain, who had a record of supporting reform, only garnered got 22% of the Latino vote in Nevada. It’s strains credulity to think Angle did better than McCain.  

There are more reliable numbers from Latino Decisions, a group that specializes in reaching Latino voters, which undermine Smith’s assertions. Despite his claims about Nevada, Latinos overwhelmingly voted against anti-immigration candidates in the top-tiered races, including voting 90-8% in favor of Harry Reid over Sharron Angle in NV Senate, and 84-15% for Rory Reid over Brian Sandoval in NV Governor.  

Need more? Latino Decisions found that the Latinos broke 86-13% for Jerry Brown over Meg Whitman in CA Governor; 86-14% for Barbara Boxer over Carly Fiorina in CA Senate; and 81-19% for Michael Bennet over Ken Buck in CO Senate.   

Rep. Smith frequently cites the gubernatorial victories of Susana Martinez (NM) and Brian Sandoval (NV), both Latino, as examples that Republicans don’t have to change their hard line position on immigration in order to do well with Latinos. But the facts tell a different story, as we’ll further explain in a report we’re releasing on Monday, April 4th, entitled “Latino Candidates Not Enough to Win Latino Vote Voters Want Change in Immigration Policy, Not Last Names.” Neither Martinez nor Sandoval even came close to winning a majority of the Latino vote.  In fact, as noted above, Sandoval, only got 15% of the Latino vote in Nevada -- and did worse among Latinos than his Republican predecessor in 2006.  In New Mexico, Gov. Susana Martinez lost the Latino Vote by a margin of 38% to 61% against Diane Denish. According to polling by Latino Decisions, voters were turned off by their hard-line positions on immigration issues.  These two races are clear examples of the fact that Latino voters care far more about a candidate’s position on the issues than their ethnic heritage. 

So, again, if Republicans want to rely on Smith, they do so at their own peril. Latino Decisions found that Latinos averaged only 24% support for Republicans in 2010 in generic two-party voting for the House of Representatives.  That’s a full 14% drop from what Smith claims.  

Smith also claims that many “Hispanic voters support efforts to enforce our immigration laws.” Of course they do, but they also strongly support comprehensive immigration reform and think mass deportation is an ugly fantasy.  Smith, along with his sidekicks, Chairman of the Immigration Subcommittee, Rep. Elton Gallegly (R-CA), and Subcommittee Vice-Chairman, Rep. Steve King (R-IA),  are pushing a mass deportation strategy – and the image of the Republican Party is growing worse and worse the more they promise to deport Latinos’ family members, neighbors, coworkers, and friends. Polling shows that only 19% of Latinos would ever vote for a candidate who opposes immigration reform. That’s the highest any Republican can ever hope to garner if it becomes known at the Party of Mass Deportation.  

We agree with Smith that Latino voters care about the jobs and the economy. But immigration is a core value for many. According to the Latino Decision polling, immigration was the second most important issue for Latinos in their decision to vote, after jobs and the economy, with 60% of Latino voters saying it was either “the most important” or “one of the most important” factors in their voting decision.  

We’ll have more to say about Republicans and Latino voters next week. In the meantime, if Republicans want to let Smith be their chief strategist on the Latino vote, they better check his numbers.  If Republicans ever want to win support from Latino voters, they better put a stop to Smith’s unrelenting attacks on Latino families.

Posted 03/28/11 at 10:25am By Mahwish Khan

The New, Accurate Conventional Wisdom in DC: GOP Has Serious Problem With Latino Voters, Immigration

2012 buttonAt America's Voice, we've been saying for a long time that Republicans will have a hard time garnering the support of the fastest growing voting demographic, Latinos, because of the party's hard-core anti-immigrant positions. Undaunted by the findings of poll after poll that show immigration is a core issue for that voting bloc, Republican leaders have turned over their immigration agenda to three members of the House: Lamar Smith (TX), Elton Gallegly (CA) and Steve King (IA), who are all promoting a mass-deportation strategy.

Last week, with the release of the new census numbers, DC's political pundits took notice of the growing Latino population and realized that -- because of immigration -- the Republican Party has a major problem on its hands. Today, at his Washington Post's blog, "The Fix." Chris Cillizza headlined its post on the subject, "The Republicans’ Hispanic Problem," noting:

The numbers are eye-opening. Hispanics now account for more than 16 percent of the total population, making them the largest minority group in the country. More than half of all population growth in the United States over the past decade came from Hispanics. Perhaps most amazing is that nearly a quarter — 23 percent — of all children age 17 or younger are Latino.

That’s a major problem for Republicans, given that in the 2008 presidential election, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) — far from the GOP’s most ardent advocate of stricter immigration laws — won just 31 percent of the Hispanic vote, according to exit polls.

And if looking back is worrisome for GOP strategists, looking forward is downright frightening.

Click here to read more.

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